WHAT’S REAL ESTATE GONNA BE LIKE IN 2012? By Dick Thackston CRB, ABR, ABRM, Broker NH, MA & VT
2012 is looking like it’s shaping up to be the year of the buyer. The winter months so far here in the Northeast have been unusually busy with buyers poking around virtually ever listing – mind you it has not been hundreds or even dozens of buyers coming out to Open House like in the mid 2000’s but there’s been plenty of action. Over the holiday week virtually every REO listing I have has had one or more showings.
Conventional wisdom says that the buyers are going to remain primarily investors and first time buyers.
The investors were out in force in the month of December probing banks and making low offers hoping that banks would take massive price hits to get properties off their books and closed by 12.31.11. I don’t know of any of these offers that went anywhere, clearly these investors do not understand the obligations or objectives of asset manager’s or company’s working out REO inventory on behalf of investors. The truth is that it costs very little to hold a property and with rare exception the REO assets are priced to the market and there is NO incentive for REO assets to be dumped just because it’s the end of the year. As a practical matter most lenders run on fiscal years that don’t end on 12.31 so it’s just another day – many do not even use natural quarters of the year for the end of their businesses. That being said many excellent transactions were originated in the month that were great opportunities in the medium and long time frames. I had one experienced investor come into my office and talk for about forty-five minutes today about how he has changed his strategy to conform to the current climate. Now mind you this man has been buying, selling and building houses in this region for over thirty years. Traditionally he has picked up land and renovation projects in the down turns and built new homes or renovated and flipped, but he has changed his tack for now. He can’t build profitably and doesn’t want to “build for practice” so he’s banking land assets and buying moderately poor condition homes and stabilizing them with the plan of renting them out. I asked him how many did he plan on doing and he said he’s done nine clean-up and rent outs in the last six months of 2011. His business model is to acquire single family homes and renovate for a total of $75,000 or less which gives him about a 20% gross return based upon is average rent of $1,200. Not bad when you look at your other investment alternatives.
First time buyers are also out in force. They are of course first time buyers and have lots of information, most of which is bad, and lots of input from family, most of whom know less than the first time buyers. These folks are getting transactions together and they are closing, but it is very painful for them because regardless of the input from REALTORS who are actually trained as a buyer’s representative, (like me I am both an Accredited Buyer’s Representative and an Accredited Buyer’s Representative Manager through the National Association of REALTORS), they tend to listen to friends and family who bought homes at sometime in the past, and this is definitely not your Uncle Louie’s real estate market. Big changes for buyers are that no REO Manager will consider an offer that doesn’t have a high quality pre-qualification letter along with it – these REO managers don’t do wishful thinking, they want to know that the buyer can perform or they won’t consider tying up inventory. Other big changes are that when the REO contracts are accepted and they call for closing by a specific date there are penalties to the buyers for not closing on time or not completing inspections on time. The REO managers aren’t kidding when they say as is where is and close on time – this is very different from what most buyers came to expect in the last few years of the real estate boom. Most sellers and their agents became really flexible on dates and repairs because they knew intuitively no mater what the buyer wanted they were still making a killing on their property: that would not be the REO market – no matter what the REO’s are loosing money for the investors behind them and they are tremendous opportunities for the buyers who will live in them for a period of years and pay down there loans and sell later in a better time.
